Two Views of Weather

In everyday life, weather determines how comfortable you feel outside and what outdoor activities you might choose. It guides choices like what clothes to wear, whether to wash your car or run the sprinkler system, and whether to take the kids to the park or keep them home with a craft or movie. We get the weather report on TV or the radio to plan our days and weekend activities. Unless an unusual weather event is occurring, such as a hurricane threatening Florida or a crippling blizzard in Denver that makes national news, we don’t really care much about what the weather is doing outside our vicinity.

Flight dispatchers look at weather in a different way from the majority of people. We work in a climate-controlled office while analyzing weather we’ll never see in areas hundreds or even thousands of miles away. We don’t care how the weather makes anyone feel, and it doesn’t really affect our own activities within the office. However, it makes a huge difference in how we plan our flights, but maybe not quite in the way you’d expect.

Good and Bad Weather

Regular people and dispatchers have different definitions of good and bad weather. What’s good for one might not be good for the other.

For Joe Blow:

  • Good weather probably involves a pleasant temperature and a lack of precipitation so he can feel comfortable outside.
  • Bad weather keeps Joe inside and might involve extreme temperatures, high winds, or precipitation.

For a flight dispatcher:

  • Good weather is any weather that allows us to operate a flight as intended – safely, legally, and on time.
  • Bad weather is any weather that might prevent us from operating a flight as intended, such as thick fog, low clouds, thunderstorms, or freezing rain that ices up runways and aircraft. It also forces us to carry lots of extra fuel for holding and possible diversions, forces us to divert at times, and/or prevents us from departing at all.
  • Weather that is unpleasant to people such as rain, hot or cold temperatures, or strong winds don’t necessarily prevent a flight from operating safely. As one of my trainers said once, our planes work fine in the rain.

So we can sum up the two views of weather as such:

  • Normal View: Do I want to be outside?
  • Aviator View: Can my flight reach its destination as planned?

The Rules

The FAA and airline policy forces us, generally with good reason, to follow a cornucopia of rules when we carry paying passengers on a flight. One rule says that we cannot land a plane if the visibility or lowest cloud layer (ceiling) is beyond a specified threshold for the runway we want to use. These values are known as minimums (or minima, if you want to use proper Latin…and I KNOW you do). Normal people don’t usually care about ceilings and visibility because it doesn’t affect them. A 100 foot ceiling might be perfect for a cool walk in the park but a showstopper for a pilot trying to land at an airport.

One common limitation for a good runway is visibility of 1/2 mile and a ceiling of 200 feet. If the visibility is at least 1/2 mile, the crew can line up and descend toward the runway to land. If it’s lower than 1/2 mile, the crew must hold until it improves or divert. Once the crew descends toward the runway to land, the pilots must see the runway at least 200 feet above the ground as they descend. If they do, they can land. If not, they must climb out, go around, and try again or divert.

Buffer Zone

Predicting the future in any field is a mix of art and science, and no one bats 1.000 in any field of prediction. The Feds and every aviator in the world know this. So the Feds added another rule to offset the inherent limitations in a forecast: the alternate rule. It specifies a buffer above the typical minimums and requires us to designate an alternate airport if the forecast weather is anywhere within that buffer zone or below. For most operators, the threshold is 2000 foot ceiling (10 times the minimum ceiling for a good runway) and 3 miles visibility (6 times the minimum visibility). If the weather is below those limits, we must name an alternate airport and carry enough extra fuel to divert there if needed. That way if the weather gets worse than forecast and prevents the flight from landing, we have somewhere to go. We spend much of our brainpower evaluating forecasts, watching trends in visibility and ceiling along with precipitation, and deciding whether an alternate or extra fuel is required or simply a good idea. (I might explore this idea in more depth in a later post.)

So which view of weather is correct? Both, of course. Joe Blow doesn’t have to care that San Diego is fogged in and below mins because he can still run on the beach with his dog. Meanwhile, I don’t have to care that Betty Boop’s picnic in Houston got rained out because my HOU arrivals are plowing through the rain with no problem. Each view is valid for its own purposes.

Random Facts About Me for May 2012

It’s been a while, so here are ten more random facts about me:

  1. I’m glad I went to Baylor (sic ’em!). There are many reasons I chose Baylor. One of the primary ones was its Christian atmosphere. My other top choice was Rice, a small liberal arts college with a secular and quirky culture. At the time I was deciding on schools, I debated (among other things) whether I wanted to be surrounded by Christians who I assumed would support my faith or surrounded by mostly nonChristian students and professors who would challenge my faith. It never occurred to me that Baylor would challenge my faith like it did or that Rice actually had quite a few Christians. I wonder what, if anything, would have been different if I’d spent those four years in Houston. Would my faith have emerged stronger or weaker? Would I have dated my high school girlfriend across hundreds of miles during college or broken up with her? Would I have chosen the same career path and gotten the job that I did?
  2. I love football, both college and pro, but I feel a bit guilty for supporting it due to the growing pile of evidence about football-related head injuries. As a fan, I’m part of the problem. However, with growing awareness comes growing support for changes to the game to make it safer for the players, so I have a bit of hope.
  3. Although as an Irving native, I’ve always supported the Dallas Cowboys, I will support the Redskins as long as RG3 is their quarterback. Yes, even head-to-head.
  4. I’ve tried a few burrito joints. I rank them thus: 1) Chipotle 2) Planet Burrito 3) Freebirds
  5. I still miss singing in a choir. I’m not a great soloist, but I seemed to do OK singing with lots of other people. Once the boys get older, I might look into rejoining a local community choir. Perhaps my old choir (The Irving Chorale) or my friend Randie’s choir (Schola Cantorum) might give me a break if they’re hard-up for baritone types. For singing purposes, my favorite styles are classical and gospel. Some musicals are great as well, such as Les Mis or Phantom. Just don’t make me try to dance and sing simultaneously. Something’s gotta give.
  6. At work we’ve been negotiating a new contract for about 2 1/2 years now. We seem to be nearing the end of the process, and speculation abounds that we’ll get a nice raise from the deal. If so, I won’t have to work day or afternoon shifts for overtime anymore, just midnights when I want to make some extra cash. That will make both Mrs. Box and me very happy.
  7. The contract negotiating process has given me a new appreciation for labor unions in general. There are always at least two sides to any discussion, and neither one is always right. Sometimes unions make bad choices. Sometimes management makes bad choices. Sometimes they work together and find a viable compromise.
  8. I am very proud of my wife. While she has her bachelor’s degree and could simply stay home with the kids until they are grown, she decided to go back to school to become a nurse. Just completing the nursing pre-reqs has taken a lot of work, but she’s cranking them out and maintaining a 4.0 while raising two active boys. After Monday, she’ll only have one more class to go (microbiology this fall) before she applies for nursing school for next fall.
  9. I get mad (internally, of course!) whenever I see a dog running around off-leash in my neighborhood or at a park. Two reasons: 1) I don’t know or trust the dog, and if he decides to attack me or my kids, the owner has no way to stop him. 2) Most cities around here have a leash law, and the owner is ignoring it.
  10. My all-time favorite musician is probably Sarah McLachlan. Jenny got me tickets to see her at AAC a few years back, and she put on a fantastic show. If she ever comes back to Dallas, I’ll probably go again.

Southwest-AirTran Dispatcher Seniority Update

Last week an arbitrator issued his ruling on the Southwest-AirTran dispatcher seniority list integration (SLI) case. He sided with our union and awarded us four extra years of seniority when we merge our seniority lists. This decision has implications for most dispatchers at each company, some good and some bad. For those who are interested, here are some details.

Background

The SWA dispatcher seniority list, counting all specialty positions and managers, has about 200 people, compared to about 45 for AirTran. Ideally, the two unions would negotiate an SLI agreement instead of going to arbitration. The SWA and AirTran pilots already did so successfully. If I understand correctly (I wasn’t involved), since both unions are under the Transportation Workers Union (TWU) umbrella, the AirTran union thought the only acceptable way to integrate the seniority lists per TWU bylaws was by date-of-hire into the dispatch office. In other words, if you were hired at AirTran before I was hired at Southwest, you’re senior to me. Our union countered that the AirTran dispatchers would be getting a much better contract (higher pay, better benefits, etc.) and more opportunity at a larger company, and the SWA folks should get something from the merger as well. Otherwise, it would be a huge windfall for AirTran with zero direct benefit to SWA. We tried to negotiate, but the AirTran union immediately filed for binding arbitration, thinking they had a strong case based on TWU documentation. Thus the decision fell to the arbitrator. At the hearing in February, AirTran proposed date-of-hire, and SWA proposed adding four years to all SWA dispatchers’ seniority. He decided the latter was the fairer outcome.

Impact for Me

Compared to using date-of-hire, the arbitrator’s decision bumped me above six AirTran dispatchers. Now twelve of them will come in above me instead of eighteen. That’s certainly nice, but on a combined list of 200 working dispatchers, those six spots won’t make a huge difference to me right now. However, the overall impact of merging with AirTran does make a significant difference as the majority of AirTran dispatchers will come in below me on the list.

Right now, I’m at the 65th percentile among SWA dispatchers. When we bid for our schedules each summer, I can have any start time except the morning shifts, which go to the top half of the list. If all the AirTran dispatchers make the move (more on that later), and no one retires from Southwest before the merger is complete, I’ll be in the 56th percentile. So overall the merger bumps me up by about ten percent. This will make it a bit easier to get overtime and give me slightly better pick of vacation days, but for now that’s about it.

Impact for Coworkers

The integration plan will have a much bigger impact on my coworkers, especially the junior people and my new friends at AirTran. As you’ve surely figured out already, the four-year boost for our side is a huge help to the junior SWA dispatchers. Except for the group we hired last summer, all of them move up by 10-15 percent. Perhaps most significantly, about 17 of them move off reserve status, which means they can finally have a consistent, predictable schedule with a set rotation of days on and days off and a fixed start time. Reserves don’t know their schedules until about three months out and might work a combination of days, afternoons, and midnights with days off scattered throughout the month. Their schedules get especially messy and busy during the summer and around holidays. It’s a good day when you finally climb high enough in the list to get off reserve.

Unfortunately, what’s good for the SWA people is bad for the AirTran people. The majority of the AirTran dispatchers will be on reserve status. Some were off reserve status at AirTran but will get stuck with it again once they come over to Dallas. Also, because they’ll be less senior overall, they’re more likely to get afternoons and/or midnights, which might be very difficult if they’ve been on day shift at AirTran and have a family situation that requires day shift to work well. Since they’re already being forced to uproot their lives in Orlando and move halfway across the country, the seniority snub is extra salt in the wound. A few had decided to leave AirTran before the SLI decision for various reasons. It’s possible that others might decide not to make the move. I feel badly for them. They didn’t ask for their company to be bought. Now they must choose between moving to Dallas with a loss of seniority or starting over somewhere else.

Let me be very clear that I am excited about the merger for a variety of reasons. In addition to the benefits to Southwest as a company (Atlanta, international ops, more airplanes, etc.), every AirTran dispatcher I’ve encountered has been a pleasure – bright, hardworking, personable, and great to work with. If all of their dispatchers are like the ones I’ve met, they will be a tremendous asset to our company, and I look forward to meeting more of them toward the end of this year or sometime next year when they start to come over.

Cog in a Machine

Walking around Headquarters early in the morning always reminds me of my two different lives at my company: I.T. and Dispatch. I leave my current office, in which I am a largely nameless worker bee, and briefly visit my previous world, a vaguely familiar place in which each worker has a specific niche and responsibilities that only he or she can fulfill.

These two different lives reflect two different kinds of jobs that we can generalize to most of the workforce. Since I’m not feeling creative enough to dream up snazzy names, let’s call them person-oriented jobs and role-oriented jobs.

Person-Oriented Jobs

These jobs depend on the specific skills, personality traits, contacts, and experience of the individual who holds the position. The worker has a niche, turf to control and defend, and is producing work that few if any other workers are doing at that company. Managers generally fit into this category. Perks might include one’s own office or desk, phone number, business cards, reputation, and appointments plus a sense of ownership and achievement regarding one’s projects. The work schedule is often normal business hours, but not necessarily. When the worker is out of the office, the work either doesn’t get done or only gets done by special arrangement with a coworker. Drawbacks include meetings. Coworkers, clients, and customers have a relationship with the worker.

I know some of these people. My dad is a CPA who owns and runs a small accounting firm. My friend Donny runs a company that sells parts to soup up your car. My friend Chris is a financial analyst. His wife Demona is a science teacher. In my previous life in I.T., I was a technical writer and business analyst.

Role-Specific Jobs

Role-specific jobs generally involve shift work, the kind of jobs where some warm body needs to do something for some amount of time. The worker’s individual identity and personal characteristics are not the keys to success. Instead, the worker’s value lies simply in fulfilling a role for a given time. Despite minor differences in ability, technique, or style, workers are largely interchangeable within each group. If one worker can’t come to work, someone else steps in and gets the job done. The work schedule can be quite variable and include nights, holidays, and weekends. The worker generally lacks a dedicated phone line or cubicle/desk/office. Relationships with clients/customers are generally superficial and very short-lived with limited interaction. Perks include the ability to trade shifts with coworkers, leave one’s work at work instead of dragging it home every day, and maintain some level of anonymity among the company’s customers.

I know several of these people as well. My friends James and Alexis are police officers. My sister Lisa is a nurse. My friends Jeremy and Lacy are firefighters. I am a flight dispatcher.

Which is Better?

Neither type of job is better than the other, but for many, one is a better fit for their personality, personal life, career goals, or abilities. For me, a role-oriented position is a better fit. During my time in I.T., I discovered that I dislike meetings, prefer not to work on huge projects that follow me home at night, feel a bit guilty if I’m away from the office for too long, and prefer not to be the only person capable of making a particular decision or fixing a given problem. As a dispatcher, all I have to do is show up and do my work until it’s time to leave. Although sometimes I wonder about specific flights after I leave, generally I go home and relax at the end of the shift. Whether the shift was good or bad, once it’s over, that body of work isn’t my problem anymore, and then next day I’ll have a whole new set of work to do. Each day gives me a sense of accomplishment and closure. I’m not on call. Nobody bothers me with fires to put out when I’m not on duty. If I call in sick or trade off a shift or use a vacation day, someone else does that work instead. They might do it better or worse than I would have, but it doesn’t matter either way because it’s not my problem. I look around in my office and see at least 12 other people doing exactly the same thing I’m doing, and any one of them could step into my role with minimal effort.

I also love the anonymity. I’ve probably developed some sort of reputation among the pilot group, but our interactions are nearly always professional rather than personal. On a phone or radio call, the captain generally calls me “Dispatch”, and I generally call him or her “Captain”. It works out great since I’m terrible with names. Plus, unless I happen to know the captain, I don’t really care who he/she is. I care that the voice on the other end belongs to the Captain, with whom I share joint decision making responsibility for the flight.

Some people want to be an artisan, a puppetmaster, a unique contributor to the business world. Bravo, says I. We need plenty of people like that. But I’ve discovered that it’s great to be a cog in someone else’s machine. I get plugged in for eight hours, do my thing to the best of my ability, and then get swapped out with someone else until next time.

Which type of job do you prefer? Which type do you have right now? If they don’t match, why not?

Hello, Atlanta!

Today Southwest starts service to Atlanta, the busiest airport in the world. Until now, it’s been a huge hole in our network, particularly for business travelers. But starting today, we’re offering nonstop service between Atlanta and Austin, Baltimore, Chicago Midway, Denver, and Houston Hobby, plus same-plane or connecting service to many of our other airports. For now, we will coexist with our subsidiary AirTran, which offers around 200 daily departures to dozens of cities from Atlanta, compared to 15 daily departures for Southwest. Next month, we will add Atlanta service to/from Las Vegas and Phoenix. In June, we’re adding Los Angeles. Over the next couple of years, we will gradually convert all AirTran aircraft and Employees into Southwest aircraft and Employees, so the percentage of SWA-branded flights at Atlanta will grow over time. Here’s a handy fact sheet about the merger.

My Dallas-Fort Worth readers have a same-plane option for four different flights each day between Dallas Love and Atlanta, two each through Austin and Houston. Next month I need to log some time in the cockpit jumpseat to stay current for work, so I plan to head to Atlanta and back with a dinner stop there to check out the airport. I’ve never been to Atlanta and look forward to seeing the king of airport traffic. Someday I want to actually visit the city with Jenny and the boys to see the famous Georgia Aquarium, the Coke museum, and the other highlights of the city. Until then, I’ll just enjoy my layover and maybe meet some of my new AirTran coworkers.

Note: Although I work for Southwest, all thoughts on this website are solely my own and do no necessarily represent those of Southwest Airlines, its Board of Directors and Leaders, or its shareholders.

Could I Be Outsourced?

Periodically, the FAA goes through the long, laborious process of changing some of the rules that airlines must follow. After lengthy internal analysis and debate, the officials publish proposed changes to the rules for a long period of public comment. The current list of proposed changes includes a few new requirements and roles that seem reasonable, such as requiring licensed aircraft dispatchers for charter operators. However, one change has some people in my office a bit concerned: allowing scheduled airlines like Southwest to contract out their dispatch services to a third party, much like an electronics company might outsource its tech support.

Some companies like Jeppesen already offer a contract dispatch service to business customers and foreign airlines. If the FAA makes this change, Southwest could hire Jeppesen to dispatch our flights instead of us.

From one Airliners.net discussion forum I read, Jeppesen is pushing hard for such a change for obvious reasons. The customers would likely be small airlines who might not have the money, space, and/or experience to provide the same level of quality that a company like Jeppeson would provide. However, the change would allow any airline to outsource its dispatchers, not just the little guys. Since a contract dispatch service could be cheaper than in-house dispatchers, especially at a well-established airline with a unionized, senior dispatch office, outsourcing might also appeal to managers of larger airlines as a cost-saving measure.

Since the primary goal of any union is protecting its members’ interest, our union is strongly opposed to the idea, arguing that outsourced dispatching would not provide the same level of safety. However, although I certainly want to keep my job, I can’t agree with such a sweeping generalization. The levels of safety on each side would depend on the individuals and organizations involved and the standards they meet.

My gut reaction says that yes, in-house dispatch MUST be safer. Running an unsafe dispatch office, among other problems, puts the entire company at risk and the dispatchers’ jobs along with it. Passengers don’t want to fly on an airline they consider unsafe. The FAA can shut down an airline that it considers unsafe. In-house dispatchers have a big incentive to do the right thing. However, job security would also be important at a contract dispatch office. A poor safety record would lead the airlines to switch to a competitor for their dispatch needs. I can’t help but wonder whether a contract dispatcher would care as much about the airline’s operation, though. He or she is unlikely to have the same tenure with, or loyalty to, the contract company as the average dispatcher at a major airline. I’ve been in my office over 6 1/2 years, and I’m still firmly in the bottom half of the seniority list.

Key to the answer is whether the employees’ goals (safety, legality, on-time performance, customer service) are aligned with their incentives (job security, pay, bonuses, pride, advancement opportunity). Each situation could be different.

The most pressing question for me: would Southwest outsource us? I highly doubt it. Our management seems to value our services, our current contract negotiations notwithstanding. We have a long history with the company and an overall excellent safety record. Nearly all of us own stock in Southwest, plan to stay here for a long time, and care about the company’s success. We have great incentive to do great work. On a more practical note, we’re also a huge operation (3400+ daily flights plus the AirTran flights) that would be very difficult for a contract office to handle. But if the FAA approves contract dispatching, and Southwest eventually decides that outsourcing us would just as safe and a better value, I suppose it’s remotely possible. That would be a sad day for many, many people.